Monthly Letter Juni 2015
After having been held hostage to Greek headlines since the end of 2014, we believe that we are nally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. As we write this le er there seems to be a (very harsh) agreement between Greece and their creditors. This does not automa cally restart a bull market, but it puts a oor to the poten al downside that a Greek exit from the Euro would pose, at least in the very near future. Greece is s ll not out of the woods and unless there will be debt forgiveness (a haircut) in the future it is very likely that we will see them back in the spotlight within the next couple of years.
Further on the macro front; the gyra ons of the Chinese equity markets and the poten al policy mistakes that it might lead to are a much bigger worry than Greece. How do you trust a market where 90% of the listed stocks are either limit down or suspended (roughly 1/3 were suspended)? The wealth e ect from the drop in equity prices will most likely not have any material impact on the real economy, but we are more concerned with the extent of the measures the regulators have been willing to take given that the market barely gave up the year to date gains (a er more than doubling from November to June!).
As Greece (hopefully) has had its 15 minutes of fame (infamous might be a be er word) and the Chinese market has reopened again we are turning our eyes towards the q2 repor ng season. Back to basics. Back to grinding corporate reports again.
Madrague had a tough month in June, -1.72%. This brings the year to date performance to +7.96%.